KSE
Search
- Page Path
- HOME > Search
COVID-19: Health Statistics
- Estimation of the reproduction number and early prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in India using a statistical computing approach
- Karthick Kanagarathinam, Kavaskar Sekar
- Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020028. Published online May 9, 2020
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020028
- 11,804 View
- 292 Download
- 12 Web of Science
- 11 Crossref
-
Abstract
PDF -
AbstractCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which causes severe respiratory illness, has become a pandemic. The World Health Organization has declared it a public health crisis of international concern. We developed a susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR) model for COVID-19 to show the importance of estimating the reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub>). This work is focused on predicting the COVID-19 outbreak in its early stage in India based on an estimation of R<sub>0</sub>. The developed model will help policymakers to take active measures prior to the further spread of COVID-19. Data on daily newly infected cases in India from March 2, 2020 to April 2, 2020 were to estimate R<sub>0</sub> using the earlyR package. The maximum-likelihood approach was used to analyze the distribution of R<sub>0</sub> values, and the bootstrap strategy was applied for resampling to identify the most likely R<sub>0</sub> value. We estimated the median value of R<sub>0</sub> to be 1.471 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.351 to 1.592) and predicted that the new case count may reach 39,382 (95% CI, 34,300 to 47,351) in 30 days.
-
Summary
Citations
Citations to this article as recorded by
- REDACS: Regional emergency-driven adaptive cluster sampling for effective COVID-19 management
M. Stehlík, J. Kiseľák, A. Dinamarca, E. Alvarado, F. Plaza, F.A. Medina, S. Stehlíková, J. Marek, B. Venegas, A. Gajdoš, Y. Li, S. Katuščák, A. Bražinová, E. Zeintl, Y. Lu
Stochastic Analysis and Applications.2023; 41(3): 474. CrossRef - Application of Mathematical Modeling in Prediction of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics
Ali AlArjani, Md Taufiq Nasseef, Sanaa M. Kamal, B. V. Subba Rao, Mufti Mahmud, Md Sharif Uddin
Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering.2022; 47(8): 10163. CrossRef - Interval type-2 fuzzy computational model for real time Kalman filtering and forecasting of the dynamic spreading behavior of novel Coronavirus 2019
Daiana Caroline dos Santos Gomes, Ginalber Luiz de Oliveira Serra
ISA Transactions.2022; 124: 57. CrossRef - Implementation of a Heart Disease Risk Prediction Model Using Machine Learning
K. Karthick, S. K. Aruna, Ravi Samikannu, Ramya Kuppusamy, Yuvaraja Teekaraman, Amruth Ramesh Thelkar, Deepika Koundal
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine.2022; 2022: 1. CrossRef - Using logistic regression to develop a diagnostic model for COVID-19: A single-center study
Raoof Nopour, Mostafa Shanbehzadeh, Hadi Kazemi-Arpanahi
Journal of Education and Health Promotion.2022; 11(1): 153. CrossRef - Comparison of the Effective Reproduction Number (Rt) Estimation Methods of COVID-19 Using Simulation Data Based on Available Data from Iran, USA, UK, India, and Brazil
Ali Karamoozian, Abbas Bahrampour
Journal of Research in Health Sciences.2022; 22(3): e00559. CrossRef - Computational Approach For Real-Time Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Kalman Filtering and Forecasting via Unobservable Spectral Components of Experimental Data
Daiana Caroline dos Santos Gomes, Ginalber Luiz de Oliveira Serra
Journal of Control, Automation and Electrical Systems.2021; 32(2): 326. CrossRef - Determination of the Most Important Diagnostic Criteria for COVID-19: A Step forward to Design an Intelligent Clinical Decision Support System
Mostafa Shanbehzadeh, Raoof Nopour, Hadi kazemi-arpanahi
Journal of Advances in Medical and Biomedical Research.2021; 29(134): 176. CrossRef - Machine Learning Model for Computational Tracking and Forecasting the COVID-19 Dynamic Propagation
Daiana Caroline dos Santos Gomes, Ginalber Luiz de Oliveira Serra
IEEE Journal of Biomedical and Health Informatics.2021; 25(3): 615. CrossRef - Comprehensive Study, Design and Economic Feasibility Analysis of Solar PV Powered Water Pumping System
K. Karthick, K. Jaiganesh, S. Kavaskar
Energy Engineering.2021; 118(6): 1887. CrossRef - Transmission Dynamics of the COVID-19 Epidemic at the District Level in India: Prospective Observational Study
Suman Saurabh, Mahendra Kumar Verma, Vaishali Gautam, Nitesh Kumar, Akhil Dhanesh Goel, Manoj Kumar Gupta, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Sanjeev Misra
JMIR Public Health and Surveillance.2020; 6(4): e22678. CrossRef
First
Prev
